To avoid this outcome, the interim government should enhance the pace, quality and scope of service delivery calibrate, where needed, reintegration programs for militants and boost its conflict resolution efforts throughout the region. Meanwhile, while frustration at the region’s lack of development will not necessarily fuel militancy, it could push people, including youth, into the militants’ arms.
Yet while the threat of major violence appears low, sporadic clashes in the region continue. Close to three years into the transition, the former rebels of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) who are leading the interim government have largely contained jihadists opposed to the peace process, with the national army’s help. Militant violence is declining but has not disappeared in the newly created Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in the southern Philippines. For its part, Manila should fast-track rehabilitation of Marawi, the city ravaged by battles with insurgents in 2017.
What should be done? The Bangsamoro’s interim government should step up socio-economic assistance to hard-hit areas, work with local authorities to reintegrate former militants and devote more energy to resolving the local conflicts militants often exploit. Delays in delivering the promised peace dividends will not automatically replenish the militants’ ranks, but they do raise the risk of renewed recruitment. Why does it matter? Despite the interim government’s policies to contain violence, sporadic clashes with insurgents continue in various provinces. The Philippine military’s operations and the pandemic have also pressured insurgents, who are now very few in number and spread over large areas. Why did it happen? The Bangsamoro’s political transition has brought gains to the war-torn region, depriving militants of some of their appeal. While militant groups outside the peace process are weakened, they are not yet defeated.
What’s new? Nearly three years after Manila granted autonomy to the Bangsamoro, the majority-Muslim region in the southern Philippines, its former main Islamist rebel group is running the interim government.
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